An Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables Affecting Real Sector Confidence Index: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

Traditional finance theories are not sufficient to explain investor’s sentiment and psychology. This situation leads to emergence of Behavioral Finance. The aim of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic factors affecting Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) of Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Within this scope, monthly data for the period between 2007:01 and 2017:03 is analyzed by using Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test. According to the results of the analysis, CBRT Composite Leading Indicators Index, Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry (CURMI), Turkish Lira Reference Interest Rate (TRLIBOR) and BIST100 Return Index affect RSCI.